A brief introduction to the weekly market of the h

2022-08-18
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A brief description of the weekly market of China Plastics PP spot (November 12 - November 16)

this week, China's plastic price index rose and fell alternately. After a week, it fell from 1302.05 points at the beginning of the week to 1291.72 points on Friday, down 10.33 points from the beginning of the week and 16.38 points from the same period last week. The China Plastics spot index adjusted synchronously this week, from 1259.48 at the beginning of the week to 1258.76 on Friday, down 0.72 points from the beginning of the week and 0.76 points from the same period last week

I. review of upstream information estimates:

international crude oil continued to fluctuate at high prices this week, and the closing price of WTI has always fluctuated above $90. After a sharp fall on Tuesday, it rebounded on Wednesday, and the subsequent slight consolidation. At present, WTI crude oil is $95.10/barrel, down $1.82 from last week; Brent crude oil was $91.62/barrel, down $1.56 from last week. Pressured by negative factors, the recent rise in international oil prices has been difficult. Relevant people predict that although crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange still have a bullish trend, oil prices may fall further in the short term

II. Market Review:

the domestic market of PP showed an overall decline this week. The adjustment atmosphere that appeared last weekend continued this week, and the market price fell by a cumulative range of about 100 yuan/ton. As the market began to show a low atmosphere last weekend, the actual decline of the market as a whole has been in yuan, but the decline rate is not fast, with a total decline of more than 100 yuan from Monday to Friday. Although SINOPEC Guangzhou Branch issued the price increase policy on Tuesday, it did not bring the driving force to the market. Although the decline slowed down slightly, the negative atmosphere was still eliminated by the weekend. The trading atmosphere in the market this week was flat. There was a flat and upside down situation in North China over the weekend, and some markets of Sinopec's supply sources were mainly flat. The normal improvement of product quality in North China market price and PetroChina ex warehouse is just a factor that controls the man-machine, material and method link in the production process. The price has formed a serious upside down, but most of them are low-cost goods in the early stage, so the substantive loss has not reached the upside down range of performance. Retail investors wait and see, and actively ship goods at a favorable price when their intention to receive goods is weak; The mentality of contract customers is average. The digestion speed of resources in North China market is not fast, and the supply of goods in East China and South China is not much. Downstream factories continue to have tepid demand, and some have a small amount of goods in stock

the PP raw material market in Yuyao China plastic city was poor this week, and the quotation gradually fell back. As the warehouse receipt market of China Plastics fell significantly, it had a certain negative impact on the mentality. The downstream demand is bleak, the intention of receiving goods is small, the enthusiasm of middlemen is affected, and the overall market turnover is not much, so the supply of goods increases slightly, resulting in merchants being forced to take goods at low prices. Traders' mentality is poor, and some believe that the market remains consolidated, while small and medium-sized traders and factories lack sufficient confidence in the market. The positive impact of partial shutdown of Shanghai Petrochemical Plant on the market is not obvious. As of Friday, Yuyao market town has a small supply of T30S wire drawing at the price of yuan/ton, and PetroChina has a small supply of wire drawing; The quotation of Yangzi j340 is 13000 yuan/ton, and that of Yangzi K8003 is 13050 yuan/ton

situation in other regions: the wire drawing quotation in Dalian market this week was stable at about 12350 yuan/ton; The quotation of copolymerization k8303 in Beijing market is about 12800 yuan/ton, and the quotation of wire drawing S1003 is about yuan/ton; Qilu Chemical City Qilu wire drawing T30S has a small supply, and the quotation is 12450 yuan/ton; The price of wire drawing in Linyi market is 11600 yuan/ton; PetroChina wire drawing in Shanghai market is 12400 yuan/ton; The quotation of F401 in Nanjing market is yuan/ton, and the quotation of low melting copolymerization j340 is 12700 yuan/ton; Guangzhou market is relatively stable this week, and the wiredrawing quotation basically remains at 12450 yuan/ton; The quotation of drawing T30S in Shunde market is yuan/ton, excluding tax

trends of domestic manufacturers: the shipment price of SINOPEC Guangzhou Branch this week rose by yuan/ton on Tuesday, and the rest remained stable. The ex factory price of PetroChina has also been slightly adjusted by a small margin. In addition, Shanghai Secco raised its ex factory price by yuan this week; The ex factory prices of Yan'an refinery and Fujian United increased by 150 yuan; The ex factory price of Panjin Ethylene was lowered by 150 yuan. In terms of devices, Liaoyang Petrochemical PP device is scheduled to start shutdown and maintenance on July 10, and the start-up plan is postponed, which is uncertain temporarily; The PP unit of Qianguo refinery was shut down on July 15 and failed to start up repeatedly; Jinan Refinery shut down for maintenance for about 40 days on the 25th; The PP unit of Jiujiang Petrochemical began to be shut down and overhauled in the afternoon of November 6, and it is preliminarily planned to start on November 21; Shanghai Petrochemical PP plant 1pp and 2PP temporary failure shutdown on the 13th, it is reported that the shutdown time is about 10 days

III. trend forecast for next week:

in general, the PP market this week continued the weakness of last week. One way to control the negative atmosphere of vertical oil cylinders. In the case that the fundamentals in the early stage did not support the rise, the PP market benefited from the rise of the PE market and the rise of crude oil prices. At the same time, the PP market was consolidated for a long time in the second half of the year, and the mood of looking forward to rise and other factors accumulated together, creating a small rise in the PP market in the early stage. However, the need to attach a large punctuation extension device is that the transaction support is weak soon, which hinders the price to continue to rise. The consolidation began in the second half of last week, and the atmosphere continued this week. For the trend of the market in the coming week, what is certain is that most people think it is difficult for the market to rise again, and a considerable proportion think that the market consolidation is dominated by shocks. At the same time, the market is more concerned about the further trend of Sinopec's ex factory price. It is expected that under the premise of the lack of motivation and factors for significant improvement in all aspects, the market will continue to be weak and consolidation is more likely

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