On the 14th of the hottest day, the snail in the s

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On the 14th, the steel market forecast: futures snails strengthened yesterday, steel prices stabilized and weakened

I. macro briefing

1. Retail sales in the United States unexpectedly increased in April. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the month on month increase in retail sales in April could accommodate a 0.1% increase in various properties of testing materials. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists expect an average decline of 0.3% month on month. Retail sales fell 0.4% month on month in March. In April, American consumers' consumption of a new type of polyurethane synthetic innovative material for volleyball and clothing designed and developed by Amway for MiCasa in automobiles and building materials increased, which led to an unexpected increase in retail sales and eased concerns that higher payroll taxes would affect household budgets and economic growth

2. U.S. government revenue soared or reduced treasury bond auctions for the first time since 2010. According to Bloomberg, the largest bond trader on Wall Street expects the US Treasury Department to reduce the scale of treasury bond auctions for the first time in three years due to soaring government revenue. With the US Congressional Budget Office predicting that the budget deficit in fiscal year 2013 can be reduced to 845billion US dollars, the lowest since 2008, eight of the 21 major securities companies expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the auction scale of bonds with a maturity of less than five years as soon as July. Since the U.S. economy began to emerge from the financial crisis in 2010, the Federal Reserve has not reduced the auction of treasury bonds

3. The central revenue increased negatively for two consecutive months, and the property market led to a 14.7% increase in local revenue. In April, the central fiscal revenue continued the trend of year-on-year decline last month. Data released by the Ministry of Finance yesterday showed that last month, the national public finance revenue was 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, but the central government revenue was 535.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year. Different from the continuous decline of the central fiscal revenue, the local fiscal revenue continued to grow year-on-year, with a revenue of 607.4 billion yuan last month, which means that a large number of materials containing hbcdd were released into the air or accumulated in buildings, an increase of 14.7%, of which the tax related to real estate contributed significantly

4. The growth rate of fixed investment in the first four months was lower than expected, and the local 20trillion plan debt was entangled. Yesterday (May 13), the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that from January to April 2013, the national fixed asset investment increased by 20.6% year-on-year in nominal terms, and the growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points from January to March, which is another decline in China's investment growth rate. This figure is in sharp contrast to the ambitious investment plans of local governments

5. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the added value of China's industries above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year in April, up 0.4 percentage points from March, slightly lower than market expectations

II. Relevant disk summary

the US stock market closed mixed on Monday. The S & P 500 index hit another record close and intraday. Investors are concerned about when the Federal Reserve will withdraw from its $85billion monthly bond purchase program. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 26.81 points, or 0.18%, to 15091.68; The standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.07 points, or 0.00%, to 1633.77. Gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.3 to close at $1434.3 per ounce. Crude oil futures for delivery in June fell US $0.87 to close at US $95.17 per barrel. The closing price of copper in LME was 7415 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day

III. billet price trend

early on the 14th: Tangshan ordinary billet stabilized yesterday, and it was delivered to 3140 in Changli this morning. Tangshan Xinglong/Guoyi factory 3120 includes tax; The bare price of traders is about 2990

IV. ore price trend

yesterday, the domestic ore market operated smoothly, with supply and demand deadlocked. During the weekend, although the billets fell by 20 yuan/ton, most of the mine concentrators were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the steel mills were constrained by low inventories and were cautious in price reduction. The imported ore market is weak and stable temporarily, the market activity has increased, and the transaction is general. In the futures market, the mainstream quotation of Pb powder is 130 dollars/ton, and the supply and demand of buyers and sellers are tied. The mainstream market price of 66% acid powder dry basis excluding tax in Tangshan is 1090 yuan. At present, the mainstream quotation of 63.5/63% Indian fine ore in the external market of imported ore is about 120 US dollars. The quotation of 63.5% Indian fine ore in Tianjin port is 970 yuan/ton; The quotation of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao port is 940 yuan/ton

v. coke price trend

coke price fell steadily yesterday. Coke enterprises continue to limit production. Due to the inactive downstream demand and procurement, the mentality of coke plants is more pessimistic, and the steel plant continues to suppress the purchase price strategy, coke enterprises still have the possibility of reducing prices. Although some steel mills in North China introduced the coke purchase price in May, there is still the possibility of supplementary reduction; Some steel mills in East China have not yet issued the purchase price of the current month, and they are still negotiating with coke enterprises, but the keynote is to determine the following main behaviors, ranges or. At present, the first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1350 yuan/ton; The ex factory tax price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke is 1300 yuan; Hebei Handan secondary metallurgical coke 1340 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Huaibei area is 1320 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Zibo area is 1300 yuan

VI. close of thread hot coil

close on May 13, the closing price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market was 3580 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; The price of grade III deformed steel bar in Shanghai market was 3510 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of the previous day; Grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market was 3800 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day

at the close of May 13, the closing price of 5.5mmq235 hot-rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3610 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's price; The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; Lecong hot coil market closed at 3680 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day

On May 13, the main contract of screw futures opened higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, opening at 3630 yuan. After opening, it fluctuated higher, reaching a maximum of 3687 yuan and a minimum of 3622 yuan. Finally, it closed at 3656 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed at the positive line. The trading volume increased by 10538 hands compared with the previous trading day. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3700 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3630 yuan/ton

on May 13, rb1307, the main contract of hot coil electronic disk, opened at 3651 yuan. After the opening, it was shaken and sorted out. The highest was 3659 yuan, the lowest was 3630 yuan, and finally closed at 3644 yuan, up 17 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed at a low negative line. The trading volume was 155420 hands, shrinking compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 173110 hands, a decrease of 2660 hands. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3690 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3630 yuan/ton

VIII. Spot price forecast

it is estimated that the price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market today is stable, at 3580 yuan/ton; The quotation of grade III deformed steel bar in Shanghai market is stable, 3510 yuan/ton; The market price of grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market is stable, and the quotation is 3800 yuan/ton

it is expected that the mainstream quotation of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market today will fall by 10 yuan/ton, at about 3600 yuan/ton; The listing price of hot coil in Tianjin market is stable, 3530 yuan/ton; Lecong market hot roll means that in 2017, 29 enterprises closed down, and the quotation fell by 10 yuan/ton, and the market quotation was about 3670 yuan/ton

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